Diffusion of Innovation was one of my favourite research topics while studying my Masters of Business in International Marketing.
The Diffusion of Innovation theory was originally published by Everett Rogers in 1962, however the world has changed dramatically in the forty years since, with the notable rise of globalisation and the Internet.
There has only been a handful of studies into multi-national diffusion of innovation, so I developed this free white paper to discuss its influence of the current global innovation phenomenon, the Apple iPhone.
The eBook develops a working framework titled the ‘Newton Ball Diffusion Acceleration Effect’, which predicts the potential accelerated rate of diffusion for the iPhone in Australia (lag market) versus the United States (lead market), using Rogers Perceived Attributes of Innovations, and Ganesh et al (1997) Factors Influencing the Learning Process framework.
The strengths of the framework are that it provides marketers with a visual representation of the acceleration effect in lag markets, and may assist in decision making as to whether to launch an innovation in many markets at once using a sprinkler strategy, or in a phased approach to capitalise on the learning effect using a waterfall strategy (Ohmae 1985).
The framework does have weaknesses and issues, with factors other than the learning effect, such as price, competition, and government policies, having significant impacts on the rate of diffusion in the lag market. There is also further research required to determine whether the framework is generalisable when using developing markets as the lag market.
More on Diffusion of Innovation
The Secret to Accelerating Diffusion of Innovation: The 16% Rule Explained
INNOVATE OR DIE 
Alot of bloggers aren’t really pleased with this new iPad.There was just 2 much hype over it and alot people got disapointed.Thing is, I for one see some of the awesome potential of the device. Third-party soft for doing tunes, games, newspapers and magazine and FFS books, tons of awesome stuff, but IMHO they just didn’t really sell it properly (aside from the books). It looks kind of undercooked
I tend to agree Elnora but I think time will tell with the iPad. As with the iPhone no one really realised its true potential until third party developers got hold of it.
Excellent post. If you need to listen to BBC Radio on the iPhone – I strongly recommend BBC Radio iPhone Streams – it is easily the best way to listen to BBC Radio on the iPhone, iPad or iPod Touch and it’s free at BBCStreams.com.
You could try & Preserve your iPad for Nothing! -> http://bit.ly/cFBuis
Cool, that was a great article. You make some really great points.
I personally think Apple is going too far with the secrecy about their new products. Case in point, the next iPhone. One gets lost in a bar by a drunk employee, and the person who finds it tries to return it. Apple won’t take it because they don’t believe him, so he sells it to Jason Chen, and they’re in hysterics about it and are charging him with a felony. I personally find it ridiculous.
Anyway, I’ve written about it on my site. Check it out at http://4thgeniphone.com. Thanks for the read!
Thanks Anabel, I agree that the bar incident is all a bit ridiculous, but cant help but think that maybe this is a launch stunt by Apple? I has definitely got everyone excited…and will probably accelerate the diffusion process.
Your site is cool by the way
Just as well you did marketing not physics… the exit ball will leave at a slower rate than the entry ball.. Cute idea but a I’m not sure it represents much at all… I do like your ideas on the effects of social networks in product adoptions or take-ups. I don’t think the Rogers bell curve represents much either, as the graphs for products over the past 40 years follow different patterns… yet no-one seemed to notice. Its a long term trend of making the data fit the curve. You see this in forecasting, which is wrong as often as it is right and so is about as accurate as tossing a coin. I’m not a fan of diffusion curves, they lead to confusion, but please control freaks who hate randomism. Some products take off quickly, others vanish without trace. Some are adopted and then dropped. Often there is little reason why. Its like that movie “(the consumer) is just not that into you…”
Thanks Gordon, this is a theory and therefore open to discussion so thanks for your input. The consumer landscape keeps changing so we need to keep adapting our theories, hence why Roger’s bell curve has been challenged over the years. I agree with you that all products are different, and some will take off and some wont for different reasons, but there are ways that we as marketers can help to influence this trend.